Executive Summary

Investment Thesis: CBOE ($CBOE) benefits from an entrenched exchange franchise, continued growth in options and volatility-related products, and early optionality from prediction-market initiatives. Revenue and earnings momentum remain positive, supported by healthy market volumes and product innovation. That said, the stock trades at a premium to long-term growth expectations, and regulatory or volume shocks could compress multiples, creating downside risk.

Current Price: $289.90 | Key Metric: Forward P/E 25.06 | Stance: NEUTRAL

Company Overview

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. operates market infrastructure and data businesses that facilitate trading, clearing and market data across listed derivatives, options, equities and other asset classes. The company runs Cboe exchanges and offers market data, analytics and trading technology to institutional and retail clients worldwide.

Key Products & Competitive Position

Core Business: Operator of multiple U.S. and international exchanges, with strong positions in listed options and volatility products.
Key Products: Options and derivatives trading, proprietary indices including VIX products, market data feeds, analytics, and growing exposure to prediction markets and alternative contracts.
Competitive Moat: Network effects from deep liquidity pools, proprietary benchmark indices, expensive switching costs for customers using market data and clearing, and regulatory licenses that are hard to replicate quickly.

Recent Developments

In the last month CBOE has shown technical momentum, passing ChartMill's Minervini Trend Template and a high growth momentum screen. Barclays maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $317 on 2/9/2026. Broader media coverage highlights interest in prediction markets and new product experimentation, which could expand addressable market over time.

Financial Snapshot

Market Cap$28.79B

P/E Ratio26.4 (TTM)

52-Week Range$165.23 - $304.43

Dividend Yield0.7%

EPS (TTM)$10.98

ROE21.5%

Revenue & Earnings Trends

Q4 FY25 revenue was reported at $671.1M with earnings of $321M, underscoring solid profitability for the quarter. Reported trailing results and the company’s recent commentary point to sustained fee-based revenue from options and market data, plus selective contribution from new product launches. Year to date performance has been strong, with two-year and five-year returns well above the S&P 500, indicating both strong top-line growth and multiple expansion over recent periods.

Balance Sheet Highlights

CBOE carries modest net leverage when considering enterprise value versus cash and investments. Enterprise value is listed near $28.10B versus market cap of $28.79B, and the firm generates healthy operating cash flow given its low capital intensity. The balance sheet supports ongoing investment in technology, M&A optionality and shareholder-friendly policies such as dividends and buybacks.

Valuation Analysis

Current Valuation Metrics

Forward P/E25.06vs Industry: ~18-22

PEG Ratio3.54Growth-adjusted

EV/EBITDA16.14vs Historical: ~13-15

P/S Ratio6.13vs Peers: ~3-5

Historical Comparison

CBOE currently trades at a premium to its own multi-year averages on several multiples, including P/E and EV/EBITDA. Part of the premium reflects a combination of above-benchmark earnings growth, recurring revenue from market data, and a perceived leadership position in volatility products. Even so, the PEG above 3 signals that the market is pricing in elevated execution and growth risk relative to current growth forecasts.

Fair Value Estimate

Using a blend of relative multiples and a simplified discounted cash flow framework with conservative growth assumptions, a reasonable fair value range sits roughly between $250 and $310 per share. The midpoint is about $280, which is near the current consensus mean analyst target. Upside to the more bullish analyst targets requires continued volume growth, margin expansion and successful monetization of new product avenues like prediction markets.

Competitive Landscape

Market Position

Market Share: Significant share in U.S. listed options and volatility products | Ranking: #1-2 in listed options and specialty derivatives depending on product and geography

Key Competitors

$ICEIntercontinental Exchange, global exchange operator with derivatives and data offerings

$NDAQNasdaq, diversified exchange and market technology company

$CMECME Group, dominant futures and derivatives exchange operator

Competitive Advantages

Moat 1: Deep liquidity and network effects in options markets that attract order flow and market makers.
Moat 2: Proprietary benchmarks and indices, notably VIX, that drive derivatives product demand and data licensing.
Moat 3: Diversified revenue streams from trading fees, data products and technology services which reduce single-product cyclicality.

Earnings Track Record

Last 4 Quarters: 3 beats / 1 miss

Recent Earnings History

Q4 2025Revenue $671.1M, Net Earnings $321MREPORTED

Q3 2025Solid revenue and margin expansionBEAT

Q2 2025Softer volumes in some derivatives productsMISS

Q1 2025Outperformed on data and index licensingBEAT

Guidance Trend

Management has emphasized investment in product innovation and technology while highlighting the sensitivity of results to market volumes and volatility. Guidance has been broadly consistent with a strategy of steady reinvestment and disciplined cost management, with occasional upward revisions tied to stronger-than-expected trading activity.

Analyst Sentiment

Consensus Rating: Buy

Strong Buy: 3 Buy: 9 Hold: 10 Sell: 1

Price Targets

Low: $246.00
Mean: $282.08 (-2.7% downside)
High: $317.00

Recent Analyst Actions

Barclays maintained an Overweight rating on 2/9/2026 and raised its price target from $295 to $317. The mix of ratings shows a skew toward Buy/Overweight positions, but the average target sits slightly below the current market price, reflecting varied views on sustainable growth and valuation.

Recent News & Catalysts

Key Developments

Blue-chip stability narrative: Media pieces flagged CBOE among stable stocks during market pullbacks, reinforcing its status as a defensive exchange play.
Prediction-market interest: Coverage on Scottie Pippen and Kalshi’s founders spotlighted growing attention in prediction markets, an area where CBOE has strategic optionality.
Technical momentum: ChartMill flagged CBOE for passing the Minervini Trend Template and showing accelerating earnings, signaling momentum investors are paying attention.

Upcoming Catalysts

Next Earnings: Expected Q1 FY26 release in Apr-May 2026 window, check company disclosures for final date | Key Events: quarterly earnings, volume and volatility trends, regulatory updates on prediction-market activities, and any M&A or product launches

Technical Outlook

Current Price: $289.90 vs 52-Week High: $304.43 (-4.8% from high)

Trend Analysis

Price action shows recent resilience with the stock holding above key moving averages and scanning as a momentum candidate in technical screens. Volume over recent weeks has supported the sideways-to-up trend. That said, the stock remains within striking distance of its 52-week high, so positive volume catalysts could push it higher while any volatility downturn would test support quickly.

Key Levels

Resistance: $295, $305
Support: $280, $265

Bull vs Bear Case

Bull Case

Catalyst 1: Continued growth in options volumes and volatility products drives fee revenue and margin expansion.
Catalyst 2: Successful monetization of prediction-market type offerings and new contracts expands addressable market.
Catalyst 3: Multiple expansion persists as investors pay a premium for recurring data and index licensing revenue.

Bull Target: $340 (+17%)

Bear Case

Risk 1: Market volumes and volatility cool, compressing trading fees and hurting near-term growth.
Risk 2: Regulatory scrutiny of novel products, such as prediction markets, limits new revenue channels or adds compliance costs.
Risk 3: High current multiples re-rate lower if growth disappoints or macro sentiment shifts away from fee-rich financial infrastructure stocks.

Bear Target: $240 (-17%)

Risks to Consider

Valuation Risk: The stock trades at premiums on P/E, EV/EBITDA and P/S compared with some peers, leaving limited margin for error if growth slows.
Competitive Risk: Rival exchanges such as ICE, Nasdaq and CME continually compete on pricing, technology and product innovation, which could pressure fees.
Macro Risk: Trading volumes and volatility are cyclical, tied to macro and market sentiment. A prolonged drop in volumes could quickly hit revenue.
Execution Risk: Expanding into new product areas like prediction markets creates execution and regulatory risk that could delay or limit monetization.

Bottom Line

Investment Verdict: NEUTRAL

CBOE presents a strong operating franchise with compelling optionality from new products and consistent fee-based revenue. At the same time the stock is priced for solid execution and growth, leaving a balanced risk/return profile for investors. Analysts note momentum and a raised price target from Barclays, but average targets sit near current levels, reflecting mixed upside expectations.

Action Items for Investors

Long-term investors: Monitor product monetization and buyback/dividend policy, and consider incremental exposure only if valuation compresses or growth accelerates sustainably.
Short-term traders: Watch options volume, VIX-related flows and technical breakouts above $295 for momentum plays; weakness below $280 may signal a shorter-term pullback.
Risk management: Size positions to account for volume sensitivity, and use stop levels near key support if you are trading the name actively.

What to Watch This Week

Company disclosures for the exact date of the next quarterly report, and any pre-earnings commentary on volumes and product performance.
Market volatility trends and benchmark VIX moves, which materially affect CBOE transaction revenue.
Regulatory developments around prediction markets and any announcements regarding product rollouts or data licensing deals.

CBOE (CBOE): Momentum vs Valuation